'It's just really strange': Retired dog handler weighs in on search for missing N.S. children
Robert Koester, a search mission co-ordinator with the Virginia Department of Emergency Management in the United States, said it's rare to never find the subject of a search — it only happens in about five per cent of cases.
That statistic is based on a database he compiled of a half-million search and rescue incidents from around the world.
Koester also created an app called Lost Person Behavior,
which was used by searchers in Lansdowne Station.
He said there are a few possible reasons the subject or subjects might not be found during a search, including that the search area wasn't large enough or that a team was assigned to an area, but never made it there.
"The final reason is, it can just be darn hard to spot people out in the woods sometimes," said Koester, who wrote the book
Lost Person Behavior: A Search and Rescue Guide on Where to Look — for Land, Air and Water.
"All it can take is a second or two of looking to your left when you needed to be looking to your right.... Especially with children, they can crawl into small, tight spaces that are obscured from view, so they can be very difficult to find."
While RCMP would not say what prompted them to return to the area over the weekend, Brown said it's not uncommon to bring searchers back in such investigations. In general, there are several factors that may prompt police to restart a missing persons search, he said.
If police had received a tip or evidence, the substance of that information likely was not known by the searchers or even officers on the ground, given that the RCMP's major crime unit is involved.
"They may tell them, 'We got a tip and we just want you to go in that area and search and see if you find anything,'" said Brown. "They don't even tell their own people that unless you are in the know, unless you're in that investigative group."
He added that it's possible evidence has been found during the course of the investigation, but RCMP are not releasing that information publicly.
As well, Brown said investigators may have reviewed information that warrants re-examining an area, or perhaps there were weather or wildlife concerns that prevented them from searching a particular area before.
Regardless of why they returned to Lansdowne Station on Saturday, Brown said he knows from experience that those search and rescue officials and police officers are carrying Lilly and Jack with them every step.
"They look at their own kids and look at their grandchildren and their nieces and nephews and they're probably wanting to go back in [and search]," he said. "It's such a heart-wrenching situation."
RCMP have said they have not ruled out the case is suspicious, and the major crime unit has been involved since the day after the disappearance.
The Mounties would not answer specific questions about the latest search and declined a request for an interview Tuesday.
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